European expansion is a growth milestone and a recurring pain point. Even well-executed launches can underperform when the underlying issue isn’t execution but product-market fit. When that happens, teams need better sales forecasting accuracy, clear visibility into pipeline coverage trends, and a forecasting accuracy approach that doesn’t rely on a data team. This is why RevOps leaders and CROs are turning to one of the most underused strategic assets in their toolkit: the segmented ARR waterfall.
ARR waterfalls: more than finance theater
An ARR waterfall shows how recurring revenue moves: new, expansion, churn, contraction. It’s standard fare in finance decks. But when RevOps teams segment by region or market, the chart shifts from historical report to real-time diagnosis.
The European region lags behind North America. Why? Your segmented waterfall likely knows. That new bundled product is stalling post-sale in DACH. Why? The waterfall holds a clue.
The expansion trap: hidden in plain sight
European expansion brings a mix of GTM challenges: language, pricing psychology, brand recognition, and competitive landscape. Collectively, these challenges often reveal underlying issues in product-market alignment.
Without a segmented view, those issues blur into global averages. But when you isolate segments, trends emerge: slower expansion in France, higher churn in Germany, or lagging NRR in Southern Europe.
This pattern is supported by measurable data, not just anecdotal observations.
ARR waterfalls expose the customer journey
Want to know if the issue is packaging, sales enablement, or post-sale experience? Look at how your customers behave across products and time.
“You can analyze the customer journey at scale by understanding what this customer is doing… This enables you to understand if Product B is the right fit for this market.”
—Will Sullivan of Predictive Analytics Partners
This is where RevOps earns its seat at the strategy table. Instead of just reporting churn, RevOps can isolate why it’s happening, where, and what to do about it.
Precision requires clean data and smart automation
Segmenting an ARR waterfall isn’t technically hard. However, it is operationally hard. Mismatched CRM definitions, inconsistent usage tagging, and static spreadsheets introduce noise.
To get real value, you need:
- One definition of ARR and churn across systems
- Consistent segment tags for region, motion, and product
- Weekly or monthly snapshots to track change over time
- A system that updates without waiting on the data team
With that in place, RevOps gains precision. They have forecasting accuracy without a data team, and they can act faster on what the data reveals.
Final thought
Segmented ARR waterfalls are about shaping smarter next moves. If you’re expanding into new regions, or already there but unsure why performance lags, your ARR waterfall might already hold the answer.
Read the segments. Spot the fit gaps. Take action before churn writes your story for you.
Go Deeper
If you liked this post, check out our conversation with Will Sullivan on YouTube, and learn more about the benefits of ARR Waterfalls in this blog post.
